heading_image

Views from the Hill  
An off-the-cuff forum to comment on the trends
and happenings we see affecting markets.

Views from the Hill

Aug

31

2015

Thoughts on crude

Posted by Ben Cheng

I wanted to share my thoughts on crude given the relatively sharp rebound we have had in recent days.

There are two graphs which are critical to crude pricing in North America.

This first graph is the annual production in the U.S. over the last 15 years.  As you can see, other than the slight downturn recently, there has been an aggressive move in the last five years that has been driven by advancements in technology.

Continue reading/comment >

Aug

31

2015

When to ride the market wave (and when to bail gracefully)

Posted by Aston Hill Investment Team

Vice President & Portfolio Manager Vivian Lo (Aston Hill Growth & Income Fund and Aston Hill Global Growth & Income Fund) explains that it is possible to bank returns in a volatile market.  In her most recent Q&A Article with Golden Girl Finance, Vivian provides some helpful tips on what to do when volatility strikes...

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SOURCE: GOLDEN GIRL FINANCE

Quitters never win. Perhaps proper advice for the athlete learning to master a new sport - not so much for the investor learning to master her portfolio.

Recent economic headwinds around the globe have pushed volatility to the forefront of many investors’ minds. That much is made clear when looking at the price of options on the Chicago Boards Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) - or, as some know it, the market’s fear meter. According to Bloomberg, call options on the VIX, which gain in value as volatility in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rises, spiked in price to levels not seen since 2006, suggesting investors are betting on a bumpy ride ahead.

Continue reading/comment >

Aug

25

2015

Volatility Reigns: An update on the markets

Posted by Aston Hill Investment Team

We have been on a wild rollercoaster ride since mid-August and yesterday (Monday), investors hit panic mode with all major indices globally selling off significantly and essentially hitting correction levels. And while there was no “specific catalyst” for Monday’s plunge, the overall selloff stems from three main issues: 1) concerns about slowing growth in China; 2) significant declines in commodity prices; and 3) uncertainty over policy responses.

The U.S. was not spared from the pain despite solid underlying economic activity including strong PMI data, employment trends continuing to improve, housing starts picking up, and wage inflation slowly making its way into the system. The stronger USD has, however, impacted manufacturing levels. But if you consider the U.S. in isolation, the table below shows that none of the recessionary indicators are “flashing red” as compared to previous recessionary periods.
 

Continue reading/comment >

Aug

25

2015

Looking back at past sell offs

Posted by Darren Cabral


I pulled together some data that I thought was interesting last night. I looked at periods over the past 20 years when the S&P 500 has had a 5 day price change so large that, statistically, it was greater than 3 standard deviations below the mean (i.e., very large and very infrequent).  A 3 standard deviation move visually is the end tip of the bell curve – the “tail” in “tail risk.” For context, a negative 3 standard deviation price change has been observed on 36 occasions out of 5,040 periods (i.e., in 0.72% of 5 day periods over the past 20 years). We had such a move over the past 5 day period. So, let’s look at what happened the previous 35 times we've had such a move.

First, I eliminated overlapping 5 day periods (e.g. the 5 day periods ending October 7 and October 8 both had 3 standard deviation price changes – I dropped the latter period from the analysis) which reduced our universe from 35 to 18 occurrences. Next, I plotted the price change over the 5 day drop and then the change over the following 25 day period.

Observations: 

  • The majority of the pain happens in those first five days.
  • In most instances, the S&P 500 recovered, either partially offsetting the losses in the first five days (blue lines) or gaining more ground than was lost (green).
  • In almost all instances when the S&P 500 continued to fall (red lines), the pace of decline decelerated, and in only two instances was the drop over the ensuing 25 day period greater than the drop over the 5 day, 3 standard deviation drop.  The yellow line is the change over the 5 day period ending August 24, 2015.

 

Continue reading/comment >

Aug

21

2015

Quantifying Risk

Posted by Ben Cheng

Global markets have been reacting to a potential economic slowdown driven predominantly from worries about China and other emerging markets. There is little doubt that global investors have lost faith in the validity of the economic data that is supplied to us from official Chinese sources. According to official reports, the Chinese economy continues to grow at the government’s target of 7%. And yet, most non-official estimates put growth at closer to 6.3% and potentially slowing. If we are looking for a culprit in this crisis, then we have no further to look than the Chinese government itself. We now have little doubt that both fiscal and monetary policies in China were too tight. The Chinese government enacted this. The recent “mini” devaluation of the Chinese Yuan has been enacted in order to counteract some of the appreciation of the Yuan relative to its main trading partners. Below is a chart showing the appreciation of the Yuan over the last 10 years.

Continue reading/comment >


Disclaimer:
This commentary is published by Aston Hill Financial Inc. (“Aston Hill”). The information contained herein does not constitute a recommendation by the authors or Aston Hill to buy or sell any of the securities, commodities, currencies or other financial instruments or assets discussed herein. This commentary has been prepared using information from sources that the authors and Aston Hill believe to be reliable, however neither the authors nor Aston Hill guarantees the accuracy of such information. This report does not constitute and may not be used for the purposes of effecting an offer or solicitation of units of any Aston Hill investment products. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with investment funds. Please read the prospectus and other publicly filed documents available at www.sedar.com before investing. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Investment funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.

Please correct the following errors:

Minimum Investment Requirements

The AHF Credit Opportunities Fund is generally available to investors that can meet a certain minimum amount of money to invest. The minimum initial investment for residents in any province or territory in accordance with applicable securities laws is set out below:

All provinces and territories $125,000 or $25,000(1)
BC, NB, NS and NL Only: $5,000(2)

Notes:

(1) A minimum purchase of $25,000 is available to residents who meet certain requirements.
(2) A minimum purchase of $5,000 is available to residents who meet certain requirements and reside in BC, NB, NS and NL by way of the prescribed OM.
Investors should contact their investment dealer or Financial Advisor for more information.

If you can comfortably invest the minimum dollar amount required in your province or territory, please accept the disclaimer below to learn more about the AHF Credit Opportunities Fund.


Disclaimer: Information pertaining to AHF Credit Opportunities Fund is not to be construed as a public offering of securities in any jurisdiction of Canada. The offering of units in the AHF Credit Opportunities Fund is made pursuant to its offering memorandum only to those investors in jurisdictions of Canada who meet certain eligibility requirements. Please read the offering memorandum carefully before investing.

Minimum Investment Requirements

The Aston Hill Opportunities Fund is generally available to investors that can meet a certain minimum amount of money to invest. The minimum initial investment for residents in any province or territory in accordance with applicable securities laws is set out below:

All provinces and territories $150,000 or $5,000(1)

Notes:

(1) A minimum purchase of $5,000 is available to residents who meet certain requirements. Investors should contact their investment dealer or Financial Advisor for more information.

If you can comfortably invest the minimum dollar amount required in your province or territory, please accept the disclaimer below to learn more about the Aston Hill Opportunities Fund.


Disclaimer: Information pertaining to Aston Hill Opportunities Fund is not to be construed as a public offering of securities in any jurisdiction of Canada. The offering of units in the Aston Hill Opportunities Fund is made pursuant to its offering memorandum only to those investors in jurisdictions of Canada who meet certain eligibility requirements. Please read the offering memorandum carefully before investing.

X


close.jpg

click-here.jpg

Markets

Sep 1, 2015 09:49 EDT

AHF-T 0.00 0.36
S&P/TSX -260.10 icon-arrow-down-red-small.png 13,599.02
S&P 500 -36.30 icon-arrow-down-red-small.png 1,935.88
Dow Jones -316.48 icon-arrow-down-red-small.png 16,211.55
NASDAQ -74.18 icon-arrow-down-red-small.png 4,702.33
CAD/USD -0.00 icon-arrow-down-red-small.png 0.76
Oil (NY) -1.97 icon-arrow-down-red-small.png 47.23
Gold 10.10 icon-arrow-up-green-small-dark.png 1,142.60
Natural Gas 0.03 icon-arrow-up-green-small-dark.png 2.72
back-to-top.png